China's Home Prices Expected to Decline Less in 2026 Amid Deepening Property Investment Slump
According to a Reuters poll conducted from August 17 to 27, China's home prices are anticipated to decrease by 3.4% in 2026, a slight improvement from the previously predicted 3.5% drop. The survey involved 11 institutions and highlights the ongoing struggles within the country's property sector.
Property investment is projected to decline by 20% this year, a significant increase from the 12% decrease forecasted in May. Additionally, sales by floor area are expected to fall by 10%, compared to the earlier estimate of an 8.3% decline. These trends indicate that the downturn in China's property market, which began in 2021 due to regulatory changes, continues to impact the broader economy.
The current focus of policy is on managing financial risks, completing unfinished projects, and reducing excess inventory rather than stimulating a recovery in the property cycle. While some improvement in home prices has been noted in major cities, economists caution that a comprehensive recovery will take time, with significant disparities in price performance across different locations.
