Paul Skenes Faces Changeup Challenges in 2026 Season

Paul Skenes, the Cy Young winner, struggled in the 2026 MLB season, with his ERA rising from 1.97 to 3.82. Despite maintaining a solid strikeout rate of 28.1% and a walk rate of 6.9%, his changeup's effectiveness dropped sharply, contributing to his overall decline.

In 2026, Skenes' changeup fell from the 98th percentile in Run Value to just the ninth percentile, with opponents hitting .233 against it compared to .103 the previous year. This decline coincided with a change in his pitching mechanics, as he threw from a higher arm slot, potentially making his pitches easier for batters to track.

While Skenes continued to perform well against right-handed hitters, his strikeout rate against lefties decreased significantly. Factors such as his participation in the World Baseball Classic and a heavy workload since 2024 may also have contributed to his performance issues. As he prepares for the 2027 season, a regular offseason could help him regain his form.